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Russia-Ukraine crisis: Real reason Vladimir Putin WON’T invade ‒ ‘It’s advantageous’




Biden says threat of Russian invasion of Ukraine is ‘very high’

US President Joe Biden will host a call with NATO allies today to discuss the ongoing Ukraine crisis. The news comes as Vladimir Putin is due to meet Belarusian counterpart Alexander Lukashenko over what will happen to the estimated 30,000 Russian troops in the former Soviet state after a joint military exercise concludes tomorrow. Satellite imagery has revealed Russian armour and artillery just miles away from Belarus’ border with Ukraine as unusual military activity, including the construction of a pontoon bridge over the Pripyat river, raising concerns. Western officials fear the drills could simply be used as cover for preparations for an invasion of Ukraine.

Russia has, however, always denied plans for an invasion.

Instead, the instability is exactly what Putin wants, according to Dr Paul Flenley, a Senior Lecturer in Politics at the University of Portsmouth and a Russian foreign policy expert.

He argued that Putin has already achieved what he wanted: a sphere of influence around his country and the whole world paying attention to Russia.

He maintains his advantage by failing to “resolve” the situation, either by withdrawing his troops, or making his intentions clear.

Dr Flenley told “In terms of Russian defensive policy, it’s advantageous to have these areas of instability on Russia’s borders and these kinds of questions which have not been resolved, because it means Russia has influences.

READ MORE: Putin’s terrifying war against Ukraine begins

Vladimir Putin

Ukraine: Why current situation is ‘advantageous’ for Vladimir Putin (Image: GETTY)

Russian field hospital

A field hospital has been constructed near the Ukrainian border. (Image: Reuters/Maxar Technology)

“The same is happening in the Caucasus or in Transnistria. The status of Transnistria in Moldova hasn’t been settled, and it suits Russia to have these unresolved situations around its border, because that means it has influence. It can exercise power.”

The current geopolitical situation is exactly what Putin wanted in the first place, Dr Flenley argued.

The increased instability in the wider Black Sea region ensures the focus of world leaders remains on Moscow, and continues to pose a threat to NATO’s eastern front too.

Dr Flenley said: “I was thinking recently that it serves Putin not to have a resolution of the situation. He’s playing the long game really.

“The longer it goes on, he’s already got a lot of what he wants – Russia is now back at the top table.

Russian fighter jets

A number of fighter jets were pictured in new satellite images. (Image: Reuters/Maxar Technology)

“The Americans, up until this, had largely begun to forget about Russia and were interested in China.

“Now everybody’s visiting Moscow, talking about Russia. So Putin has gone from being ignored and isolated to being in the centre of international politics.

“He can keep this running. You’ve got all these exercises and mobilisation of troops, well he can keep doing that.”

Russian officials have pledged that their troops will leave Belarus when the exercises conclude tomorrow.

However, in contradictory remarks, Mr Lukashenko said on Thursday: “If it makes sense to keep Russian troops here, we will keep them as long as necessary.

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Russian pontoon bridge

A pontoon bridge has also been constructed. (Image: GETTY/Maxar Technology)

“I emphasise once again: this is our territory and this decision is up to us.”

The troops in Belarus are some of the most concerning to NATO because they have been sent many thousands of miles from their bases in eastern Russia.

For any meaningful diffusion of tensions, these troops would need to be withdrawn and returned to their bases.

The Kremlin claimed earlier this week that it is withdrawing troops and equipment from the Ukrainian border, but did not clarify exactly how many.

Ukrainian kindergarten shelled

A Ukrainian soldier looks at debris after the reported shelling of a kindergarten. (Image: GETTY)

Despite Russia’s defence ministry posting videos of tanks and troops supposedly leaving, western intelligence suggests a further 7,000 troops have been deployed to the Ukrainian borders in the past few days.

According to a report published in The Times today, Putin has made up his mind to invade Ukraine.

A Whitehall source told the newspaper that the Russian President’s mindset had changed within the past 24 hours, saying: “He’s going to do it, and it’s going to be horrendous.”

This comes as Antony Blinken, US Secretary of State, warned Russia could be planning a “fake, even a real attack, using chemical weapons”.

He said: “Russia may describe this event as ethnic cleansing or a genocide.

“This could be a violent event that Russia will bring on Ukraine or an outrageous accusation that Russia will level against the Ukrainian government.”

Mr Blinken called on Russia to “state it clearly” that it wants peace.

He said: “State it plainly to the world, and then demonstrate it by sending your troops, your tanks, the planes back to their barracks and hangars and sending your diplomats to the negotiating table.”



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Medical Treatment

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Read more: Ryan Garcia and Who is Ryan Garcia Net Worth


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'This is huge' Swedish Air Force jet deployed over Belarus border in threat to Putin




The Scandinavian country is not a member of NATO, but could be ready to trade in its neutral status in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

News of Stockholm’s decision to send a jet was revealed by twitter user Jamming.

They wrote: “Swedish Air Force Korpen active over Poland border area with Belarus.

“Sweden part of surveillance of Belarus and Ukraine!!!

“This is a huge political statement! Update on SwAF Korpen.”


The Gulfstream IV aircraft was tracked taking off from Linking airport and then flying towards the city of Grodno in western Belarus.

It was flying at an altitude of just under 12,000 metres at a speed of 836 kilometres per hour.

Although Sweden is not a NATO member, it is an “enhanced opportunity partner” of the military alliance.

The government also signed a statement in 2018 pledging to strengthen its defence cooperation.

Swedish Prime Minister Magdalena Andersson rejected calls by opposition parties earlier this month for the country to join NATO.

She argued that such a move would further destabilise Europe.

Her statement came in the wake of threats from Moscow that NATO membership would bring “serious military-political consequences” for Sweden.

However, there is growing public support among Swedes for their country to join the transatlantic military alliance.

A poll conducted in late February by broadcaster SVT found that 41 percent of the public supported NATO membership, while thirty-five percent were against.

It was the first time an opinion study in Sweden had found more people in favour of the country joining NATO than were against it.



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Putin humiliated: Russia tries and fails to capture defiant Ukraine village for tenth time




Russia has tried and failed to capture the village of the Chornobaevka ten times, according to Ukrainian presidential adviser Aleksey Arestovich. Videos shared by Ukrainian officials online showed the “tenth defeat of the Russian invaders in Chornobaevka”. The continued failures to capture the village comes as Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said last night that his country’s forces had “dealt powerful blows” to the Russian military.

Mr Arestovich told a press conference that Russian troops had tried to take Chornobaevka for the tenth time, but the assault again ended in failure.

Following this, the head of the nearby Mykolaiv Regional State Administration Vitaly Kim published a video showing “the defeat” as explosions erupt on the outskirts of the village.

The resolute village has become famous in Ukraine for its defence, as President Zelensky commended Chornobaivka last weekend for fending off six invasions at the time.

He said: “Ukrainian Chornobaivka will go down in war history. This is a place where the Russian military and their commanders have shown themselves for who they truly are – incompetent, capable of simply handing over their people for slaughter.

“Our military has annihilated the invaders near Chornobaivka six times.

“Six times, yet they keep coming back.”

JUST IN: Putin on brink of major RETREAT in Kyiv

Online users ridiculed the latest Russian failures and hailed the Ukrainian defiance, with one Reddit user remarking: “At some point, I think every military intelligence outfit looking at this must be wondering how bad the rot is in the Russian military.”

One user visavillem added: “So this is the 10th time. Are Russians trying to bait Ukrainians to waste ammo with some obsolete/broken equipment, or are they really so stupid, that they keep stepping on the same rake again and again?”

Another user on Reddit adfgqert posted: “The Ukrainian people have resolve and determination that is beyond what I think is normal.

“Beyond inspirational and they bring fighting for what they believe in to a new level for me.” 

This comes amid ongoing setbacks for Russian military forces in the south of the country.

Earlier this week, it was reported that Russia had withdrawn most of its helicopters from a strategic airport in Kherson, in southern Ukraine, according to satellite images.

Kherson has also been the site of several local protests against the occupying Russian soldiers.

The official said: “We can’t corroborate exactly who is in control of Kherson but the point is, it doesn’t appear to be as solidly in Russian control as it was before.

“That would make it very, very difficult for them to make any kind of ground movement on Odesa.

“That would be a significant development, no question about that, in terms of the southern part of the war.” 


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